The Data Room
All Indicators
Every series behind the Taslos readings, shown as published by its source — no forecasts, no estimates of our own. Dates are observation dates, not release dates: a monthly series dated October was measured in October, whenever it was published.
Labor
| Series | Latest | Previous | Change | As of | Source |
|---|
| Nonfarm payroll employment (000s) | 159,293 | 159,128 | +165 | Oct 2026 | FRED |
| Unemployment rate (U-3) | 4.10% | 4.20% | −0.10 pp | Oct 2026 | FRED |
| Unemployment rate (U-6) | 7.90% | 7.60% | +0.30 pp | Oct 2026 | FRED |
| Initial jobless claims (weekly) | 200,000 | 191,000 | +9,000 | Nov 7, 2026 | FRED |
| Sahm rule recession indicator | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00 pp | Oct 2026 | FRED |
| Job openings, JOLTS (000s) | 7,523 | 7,190 | +333 | Sep 2026 | FRED |
| Avg hourly earnings, private ($/hr) | $38.00 | $37.86 | +$0.14 | Oct 2026 | FRED |
Growth
| Series | Latest | Previous | Change | As of | Source |
|---|
| Real GDP growth (q/q, annualized) | 3.4% | 2.2% | +1.1 pp | Jul 2026 | FRED |
| Industrial production index | 103.95 | 103.27 | +0.68 | Sep 2026 | FRED |
| Retail sales ex food services | $652.1B | $647.4B | +$4.7B | Sep 2026 | FRED |
| Chicago Fed National Activity Index | 0.07 | −0.08 | +0.15 | Sep 2026 | FRED |
| Manufacturers' new orders, nondefense capital goods ex aircraft | $88.2B | $87.6B | +$0.6B | Sep 2026 | FRED |
| Consumer sentiment (Univ. of Michigan) | 48.1 | 51.7 | −3.6 | Sep 2026 | FRED |
Inflation
| Series | Latest | Previous | Change | As of | Source |
|---|
| CPI inflation (monthly % change) | 0.4% | 0.6% | −0.3 pp | Oct 2026 | FRED |
| Core CPI inflation (monthly % change) | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.0 pp | Oct 2026 | FRED |
| PCE inflation (YoY) | 3.6% | 3.4% | +0.2 pp | Sep 2026 | FRED |
| Core PCE inflation (YoY) | 3.1% | 3.0% | +0.1 pp | Sep 2026 | FRED |
| Michigan 1-yr inflation expectations | 4.6% | 4.0% | +0.6 pp | Sep 2026 | FRED |
Credit & spreads
| Series | Latest | Previous | Change | As of | Source |
|---|
| High-yield OAS | 320 bp | 330 bp | −10 bp | Nov 12, 2026 | FRED |
| Investment-grade OAS | 89 bp | 90 bp | −1 bp | Nov 12, 2026 | FRED |
| BBB OAS | 111 bp | 112 bp | −1 bp | Nov 12, 2026 | FRED |
| BB OAS | 183 bp | 193 bp | −10 bp | Nov 12, 2026 | FRED |
| Single-B OAS | 339 bp | 347 bp | −8 bp | Nov 12, 2026 | FRED |
| CCC & below OAS | 1,314 bp | 1,330 bp | −16 bp | Nov 12, 2026 | FRED |
| Euro high-yield OAS | 323 bp | 321 bp | +2 bp | Nov 12, 2026 | FRED |
| EM corporate OAS | 167 bp | 172 bp | −5 bp | Nov 12, 2026 | FRED |
| SLOOS net tightening, C&I loans to large/mid firms | 1.7% | 0.0% | +1.7 pp | Oct 2026 | FRED |
| Excess bond premium (Fed FEDS) | −0.27% | −0.38% | +0.12 pp | Oct 2026 | Federal Reserve FEDS |
| Oracle 5Y CDS | 298 bp | 343 bp | −45 bp | Nov 6, 2026 | Press reports |
| CoreWeave 5Y CDS | 1,155 bp | 1,289 bp | −134 bp | Nov 6, 2026 | Press reports |
Rates & financial conditions
| Series | Latest | Previous | Change | As of | Source |
|---|
| Fed funds target, upper bound | 4.00% | 4.00% | 0.00 pp | Nov 15, 2026 | FRED |
| Treasury yield, 2-year | 4.86% | 4.73% | +0.13 pp | Nov 12, 2026 | FRED |
| Treasury yield, 10-year | 5.10% | 4.98% | +0.12 pp | Nov 12, 2026 | FRED |
| Yield curve, 10Y minus 3M | 0.83% | 0.78% | +0.05 pp | Nov 13, 2026 | FRED |
| Real Treasury yield, 10-year (TIPS) | 2.86% | 2.78% | +0.08 pp | Nov 12, 2026 | FRED |
| Chicago Fed NFCI | −0.462 | −0.465 | +0.003 | Nov 6, 2026 | FRED |
Housing & household credit
| Series | Latest | Previous | Change | As of | Source |
|---|
| Case-Shiller national home prices (YoY) | 2.1% | 1.9% | +0.2 pp | Aug 2026 | FRED |
| Housing starts (000s, SAAR) | 1,221 | 1,288 | −67 | Sep 2026 | FRED |
| Building permits (000s, SAAR) | 1,398 | 1,403 | −5 | Sep 2026 | FRED |
| Mortgage rate, 30-yr fixed | 7.11% | 7.18% | −0.07 pp | Nov 12, 2026 | FRED |
| Credit-card charge-off rate (commercial banks) | 3.82% | 3.82% | 0.00 pp | Apr 2026 | FRED |
| Credit-card delinquency rate (commercial banks) | 2.85% | 2.91% | −0.06 pp | Apr 2026 | FRED |
| Household debt in delinquency, all types (NY Fed) | 5.0% | 4.7% | +0.3 pp | Q3 2026 | NY Fed |
| Card balances flowing into serious delinquency (NY Fed) | 6.87% | 6.97% | −0.10 pp | Q3 2026 | NY Fed |
| Mortgage balances flowing into serious delinquency (NY Fed) | 1.60% | 1.52% | +0.08 pp | Q3 2026 | NY Fed |
| HELOC balances (NY Fed) | $481B | $458B | +$23B | Q3 2026 | NY Fed |
Markets & leverage
| Series | Latest | Previous | Change | As of | Source |
|---|
| S&P 500 index | 7,561.67 | 7,592.40 | −30.73 | Nov 13, 2026 | FRED |
| Nasdaq Composite | 25,136.27 | 25,366.09 | −229.82 | Nov 13, 2026 | FRED |
| VIX volatility index | 18.70 | 17.49 | +1.21 | Nov 12, 2026 | FRED |
| WTI crude oil ($/bbl) | $89.62 | $89.62 | $0.00 | Nov 11, 2026 | FRED |
| Margin debt (FINRA) | $1,480.1B | $1,454B | +$26.1B | Sep 2026 | FINRA |
Private credit
| Series | Latest | Previous | Change | As of | Source |
|---|
| Fitch private-credit default rate (TTM) | 6.3% | 6.0% | +0.3 pp | Q3 2026 (TTM) | Fitch Ratings |
| KBRA middle-market default monitor | 3.5% | 3.4% | +0.1 pp | Aug 2026 | KBRA |
| Unlisted BDC net flows, quarterly (PitchBook) | −$5B | — | — | Q2 2026 | PitchBook |
Change is latest minus previous, in each series' own units (pp = percentage points, bp = basis points). A series is flagged STALE when its newest observation is older than its normal cadence.
This table is regenerated daily from the sources named in each row. When a source has not published a newer observation, the last published value stands — and is flagged once it is older than its normal cadence.
