Research
My economic analyses, theories, and notes.
Each piece is dated, sourced, and published with its limits. Fragility and timing are kept separate on purpose.
October 2026
Seven Indicators — Recession, Valuation & Cross-Default
Three gauges for recession, three for valuation and drawdown, and one for cross-default in the AI buildout chain, each with its backtest and false positives.
October 2026
Valuation & Recession Models — Audit, Rebuild & Composite
An audit and rebuild of the valuation and recession models, and a composite that separates the two jobs instead of blending them.
Analysis
Improving the Indicators with the Tripwire Evidence
What the tripwire board's evidence says about the indicator suite, and what changed because of it.
October 11, 2026
Macrotrends Catalog vs. Our Indicator Stack
A side-by-side check of the Macrotrends catalog against the Taslos indicator stack.
Live board
Tripwire Board
Monitored wires across recession timing, credit, market breadth, leverage, and household stress, with a public transitions log.
Live dashboard
The Seven — Indicator Dashboard
The full indicator suite with health bars, historic trends, methods, and limits for every gauge.