Updated daily by the model watch · generated Wed Oct 14, 2026 01:37 PM ET · 44 tripwires: 4 tripped, 6 on watch, rest OK. A tripwire is a named condition with a preset trigger; the board shows the current value, which way it is moving, and what would trip it. Fragility gauges read as zones, not timers.
| Tripwire | Now | Trend | Trigger | Status | Data as of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sahm Rule | 0.00 pp | ▼ -0.07 / 3m | ≥ 0.50 pp | OK | 2026-09-30 |
| Jobless claims, 4wk avg YoY 4wk avg 198k | -13.0% | ▲ +0.8pp / 4w | ≥ +10% | OK | 2026-10-03 |
| RPI — recession probability 12m | 8.0% | ▬ model | ≥ 30% (watch ≥ 20%) | OK | 2026-09-30 |
| LIG — labor inflection gauge | 12 / 100 | ▬ model | ≥ 60 (watch ≥ 40) | OK | 2026-10-31 |
| Temp-help employment YoY | +3.0% | ▲ +2.9pp / 3m | ≤ 0% | OK | 2026-10-31 |
| CFNAI 3m average | +0.01 | ▲ +0.04 / 3m | ≤ −0.70 | OK | 2026-08-31 |
| Bank lending standards, SLOOS small firms quarterly | +1.8% net tightening | ▼ -4.8pp / qtr | ≥ +20% | OK | 2026-07-01 |
| Job openings per unemployed (JOLTS) 7,079k openings vs 7,031k unemployed | 1.01 | ▼ -0.02 / 3m | < 0.90 | WATCH | 2026-08-01 |
| ISM Manufacturing PMI via ISM releases (not on FRED) | 54.5 | ▼ -0.1 / 1m | ≤ 48 | OK | Sep 2026 |
| ISM Services PMI via ISM releases (not on FRED) | 54.9 | ▼ -0.5 / 1m | ≤ 48 | OK | Sep 2026 |
| Tripwire | Now | Trend | Trigger | Status | Data as of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| High-yield spread (OAS) | 3.11% | ▲ +46bp / 1m | ≥ 4.50% | OK | 2026-10-12 |
| Investment-grade spread (OAS) | 0.83% | ▲ +3bp / 1m | ≥ 1.60% | OK | 2026-10-12 |
| Baa−Aaa widening from 12m low level 0.44 pp | +0.01 pp | ▬ -0.00pp / 1m | ≥ +0.50 pp | OK | 2026-09-30 |
| Financial conditions (NFCI) | -0.49 | ▲ +0.02 / 3m | > 0 | OK | 2026-10-02 |
| FSM — financial stress momentum | 33 / 100 | ▬ model | ≥ 60 (watch ≥ 40) | OK | 2026-10-31 |
| Credit–equity divergence the classic early crack: spreads widening while stocks rise | HY +0.60pp off 6m low; SPX below highs | ▲ HY +4bp / 1m | HY +0.50pp while SPX at highs | OK | 2026-11-12 |
| CCC spread widening from 6m low level 12.53% — the weakest tier, where cracks start | +3.49 pp | ▲ CCC +177bp / 1m | ≥ +2.50 pp | TRIPPED | 2026-10-12 |
| CCC−HY quality gap stress concentrated in the weakest borrowers when this widens | 9.42 pp | ▲ +131bp / 1m | ≥ 9.00 pp | TRIPPED | 2026-10-12 |
| BBB spread widening from 6m low level 1.02% vs IG index 0.83% — fallen-angel precursor | +0.10 pp | ▲ BBB +5bp / 1m | ≥ +0.40 pp | OK | 2026-10-12 |
| Fitch HY default rate (TTM) via Fitch releases | 1.94% | ▼ -0.39pp | ≥ 4.00% | OK | Sep 2026 |
| Tripwire | Now | Trend | Trigger | Status | Data as of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 vs 200-day average | +2.6% above | ▬ level 7,521 | close below 200dma | OK | 2026-11-10 |
| Index breadth (below 200dma) | 1 of 3 | ▬ Nasdaq | ≥ 2 of 3 | WATCH | 2026-11-13 |
| S&P 500 five-day move | -0.6% | ▼ 5 sessions | ≤ −5% | OK | 2026-11-10 |
| VIX | 19.9 | ▲ +5.1 / 1m | ≥ 30 | OK | 2026-11-09 |
| VIX term structure (VIX / VIX3M) | 0.94 | ▲ +0.09 / 1m | ≥ 1.00 (inverted) | OK | 2026-11-10 |
| Equal-weight vs cap-weight (RSP/SPY), 3m | -0.6% | ▼ 3m relative | ≤ −5% (leadership narrowing) | OK | 2026-10-30 |
| Tripwire | Now | Trend | Trigger | Status | Data as of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BDC basket (BIZD) drawdown from 52w high market-based private-credit proxy, daily | -16.9% | ▲ +1.8pp / 1m | ≤ -15% | TRIPPED | 2026-11-14 |
| Senior loans (BKLN) drawdown from 52w high market-based private-credit proxy, daily | -2.8% | ▼ -0.7pp / 1m | ≤ -7% | OK | 2026-10-14 |
| Affirm (AFRM) drawdown — buy-now-pay-later proxy market-based private-credit proxy, daily | -9.2% | ▲ +5.3pp / 1m | ≤ -40% | OK | 2026-10-14 |
| Fitch private-credit default rate (TTM) via Fitch releases; the Taslos watch tracks it | 6.30% | ▲ +0.20pp | ≥ 8.00% | OK | Aug 2026 |
| KBRA middle-market default monitor KBRA MM Monthly Pulse, Aug 2026 (via Business Wire): KMDM 3.5%, up from 3.4%; 3M downgrade… | 3.5% | ▲ +0.1pp | ≥ 5.0% | OK | Aug 2026 |
| Unlisted BDC net flows (quarterly) PitchBook reported estimates (27 unlisted BDCs); alert owned by the cascade watch | ≈ $-5.0B net (Q2 2026) | ▬ TTM net ≈ $17B, down from ≈ $47B peak | net worse than −$5B/qtr or TTM net < $17B | WATCH | Q2 2026 |
| Credit-card delinquency rate quarterly, all commercial banks | 2.85% | ▼ -0.06pp / qtr | ≥ 3.25% or 2 rising quarters | OK | 2026-04-01 |
| Business loan delinquency rate C&I and CRE loans; quarterly, all commercial banks | 1.24% | ▼ -0.12pp / qtr | ≥ 2.50% | OK | 2026-04-01 |
| Consumer loan delinquency rate personal/consumer credit; quarterly, all commercial banks | 2.51% | ▼ -0.10pp / qtr | ≥ 3.25% | OK | 2026-04-01 |
| Mortgage delinquency rate (single-family) no free subprime-only split exists; subprime detail is MBA/NY Fed press, quarterly; quarterly, all commercial banks | 1.82% | ▼ -0.06pp / qtr | ≥ 3.00% | OK | 2026-04-01 |
| Household debt service ratio FRED TDSP vintage; series peaked 15.9% in 2007; quarterly | 11.1% of disposable income | ▬ -0.05pp / qtr | ≥ 13.0% | OK | 2026-04-01 |
| Real pay growth (wages YoY − CPI YoY) avg hourly earnings vs consumer prices | -0.7% | ▼ -0.6pp / 3m | ≤ −1.0% | WATCH | 2026-09-30 |
| 30Y mortgage rate (refi stress) above ~7.5% the refi market is effectively shut for most holders; MBA refi index has no free feed | 7.40% | ▲ +0.91pp / 3m | ≥ 8.50% | OK | 2026-10-08 |
| Small-business Subchapter V elections, YoY (monthly) Epiq AACER via GlobeNewswire Oct 8, 2026: Sep 2026 Sub V elections 276, +38% YoY (Aug 2026 +63%… | +38% YoY | ▼ -25pp vs prior mo | ≥ +50% YoY | WATCH | Sep 2026 |
| Total bankruptcy filings, YoY (monthly) Epiq AACER via GlobeNewswire Oct 8, 2026: Sep 2026 total filings 52,299, +6% YoY; YTD 469,719, … | +6% YoY | ▬ YTD total filings +11% | ≥ +20% YoY | OK | Sep 2026 |
| Tripwire | Now | Trend | Trigger | Status | Data as of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Margin rollover tripwire has its own watch event | streak 0 mo · $1,454B | ▬ record $1,502B 2026-06 | 2+ monthly declines after +30% YoY surge | OK | 2026-08-31 |
| Margin debt YoY debt/cash 7.0x | +37.2% | ▬ 88th pctile since 1959 | ≥ +40% surge zone | WATCH | 2026-08-31 |
| DRG — drawdown risk gauge 5 legs incl. margin leverage | 93 / 100 | ▬ model | ≥ 85 fragility zone | TRIPPED | 2026-10-31 |
Sources: FRED (Federal Reserve), FINRA margin statistics, CBOE via FRED, Yahoo Finance daily prices (BIZD, BKLN, RSP, SPY), Fitch Ratings releases and ISM releases (carried from the Taslos indicator watch state), KBRA Monthly Pulse (manual carry, see note). Model rows (RPI, LIG, FSM, DRG) come from the valuation-model suite in ~/workspace/valuation-model. Slow series show their own as-of date; FINRA margin data lags ~3 weeks. Statuses seed silently on first computation; alerts fire only on transitions into or out of TRIPPED for the alertable wires. Analysis, not investment advice.
